For our international audience, “holding the bag” implies holding the bag of sh*t last, as it is being passed around. Or, think of the game of musical chairs. Bottom line, don’t be caught holding the bag.

Every year around September this story repeats itself, a new iPhones model comes out, people begin to trade in their older versions in droves, BrightStar and other collectors swell to the point of rapture with all the trade-ins through ATT, Verizon, and 100s of others available to consumer trade-in programs. The supply of used phones quickly outpaces demand around this time of year and the prices begin to drop.

eBay is the best way to track used iPhones in the world. Remember, it is a huge market where “the invisible hand” that regulates the current pricing is very much at play. As an experienced eBay seller in the past, I had collected a lot of sales data on iPhones year over year. The pattern repeats itself to the “T” every fall.

5 days before the release day first cracks in pricing appear. Sales at the stable for the last 9-10 months price slow down dramatically, and eBay customer demands first price concessions. In the following 12-15 weeks the price of the obsolete models will fall by about 30% (whereas older models will take a slightly lesser hit). The fall will be a gradual week-to-week decline with prices coming down slightly faster during the month of October.

An interesting phenomenon takes place during this time of decline. The wholesalers refuse to acknowledge the basic fact that this happens every year and keep insisting on the old prices. Every attempt to reason is refuted as nonsense. In the meantime, on the retail side, eBay and Amazon are already dancing to the new declining price tune.

What does it mean for you?

It means someone will be caught holding the bag of sh*t in the middle, between the wholesalers and the retail. Don’t be that someone – Buy refurbished Samsung phones this time of year.

Written By: David Abbott

HK RefurBished Stock